Market Forecasting and Technical Analysis

Humankind has always been fascinated by the notion of auguring. For obvious reasons, this is particularly true where the stock market is concerned. While some of this exhibit's authors purport to divine future price movements through the study of astrological or historical cycles, others have taken a more mathematical approach using graphs and statistics to predict price movements. This last approach is commonly referred to as "technical analysis." Whatever the means, however, the prospect of forecasting stock market movements remains controversial: while some market scholars insist it can not be done, others such maintain that prices move in distinct repeating patterns that hint at upcoming moves. Both camps are represented in this exhibit, from the most adamant nay-sayers to the most meticulous technical analysts.

Bean, Louis H. How To Predict The Stock Market. Washington, D.C.: Robert B. Luce, 1962.

A technical analysis primer that surveys the accuracy of certain prediction techniques in forecasting major market moves of the 20's, 30's, 40's, and 50's. The author also introduces the "Bean Line," a new prediction tool predicated on the notion that stock prices are 'sandwiched in"' between two major economic forces, business cycles and market averages." First edition, hardbound with dust jacket.

Benner, Samuel. Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices. Cincinnati: Robert Clarke and Co., 1884.

The premise of this book is that all prices follow an historical trend, ordained by God. Benner, in this early example of a market prediction book, claims to have deciphered this cyclical trend and presents it to his readers straightforwardly, if simplistically. Hardbound edition.

Bond, Frederick Drew. Stock Movements and Speculation. New York: D. Appleton and Co., 1928.

A "scientific study" of the technical and fundamental factors affecting stock prices. Including in the text are discussions of "why the market moves," "market control," and "how banks affect the stock market." First edition, hardbound with dust jacket.

Bradbury, Oliver W. The Proper Time To Buy Low Priced Securities for Big Profits. New York: The Magazine of Wall Street, 1926.

Though it claims to focus more on short and intermediate-term price fluctuations, this book is best suited for the beginner seeking insight about buying the stocks of good companies on the cheap. Hardbound, second edition.

Bradley, Donald A. Stock Market Prediction: The Planetary Barometer and How to Use It. Los Angeles: Llewellyn Publications, 1948.

One of several books in the Hess Collection aimed at establishing a correlation between astrological phenomena and stock market activity. First edition, paperback with brown paper wraps.

Carret, Philip L. The Art of Speculation. New York: The National Financial Weekly, 1927.

Carret's text, which soon became a standard reference work among members of the investment community, makes a thorough examination of the many ins and outs of speculation. In addition to a detailed analysis of "market machinery" and "the vehicles of speculation," Carret's book includes chapters on options, arbitrage and mergers and acquisitions. First edition, hardbound.

Coonter, Paul H., Ed. The Random Character of Stock Market Prices. Cambridge, MA: M.LT. Press, 1964.

A collection of essays that dispute the notion that stock prices can be predicted. Referring to a well-known model of randomness, the author states that "stock price changes are best approximated by classical Brownian motion." First edition, hardbound with dust jacket.

Drew, Garfield A. New Methods for Profit in the Stock Market. Boston: Metcalf Press, 1941.

"Mr. Drew presents for the first time a classified analysis of easily understood and tested specific methods for timing stock market operations--some of them entirely new." This book includes discussions of Dow theory, wave principles and moving average methods of market forecasting. First edition, hardbound with dust jacket.

Drew, Garfield A. New Methods for Profit in the Stock Market. Boston: Metcalf Press, 1948.

Anenlarged and revised edition of Drew's 1941 publication. This new edition includes an expanded discussion of odd lot trading statistics and their significance. Second, revised edition, hardbound with dust jacket.

Edelin, B. Minor Swings of the Stock Market and Their Indications. Philadelphia: Dorrance & Company, 1924.

"The purpose of this book is to present to those interested in the market a concrete idea of stock fluctuations and price movements; to furnish the trader with a scientific cause of price changes, and to show by means of graphic charts the operation of the law of supply and demand in the stock market. . . . It is the belief of the author that the methods together with the charts used in this book will furnish a basis for profitable operation in the stock market." First edition, hardbound, illustrated with charts.

Edwards, Robert D. and John Magee. Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. Sprinfield, MA: John Magee, 1958.

"The stock market goes right on repeating the same old movements in much the same old routine," writes Mr. Edwards. His book explains these patterns and helps readers to profit from recognizing these recurring trends. Fourth edition, fourth printing, hardbound.

Foster, Orline D. Profits from the Stock Market. New York: Harper & Brothers, 1937.

A collection of "certain guideposts to sound and successful investment analysis." Includes discussions of both fundamental and technical signals. First edition, hardbound with dust jacket.

Gann, William D. New Stock Trend Detector. New York: Financial guardian Publishing, 1936.

"Areview of the 1929-1932 panic and the new 1932-1935 bull market with new rules and charts for detecting trends of stocks." First edition, hardbound.

Genstein, Edgar S. Stock Market Profit Without Forecasting. South Orange, NJ: Investment Research Press, 1954.

Incontrast to many of the authors represented in this exhibit, Genstein maintains that "The impossibility of forecasting prices with much greater accuracy that tossing a coin is rather generally conceded." Thus, instead of outlining a method of predicting stock price fluctuations, his "formula plan" is designed for "dealing with fluctuations . . . as they occur, so that profitable results will be secured in the long run regardless of the direction of future movements of stock prices." Limited first edition, hardbound with dust jacket.

Granville, Joseph E. Granville's New Strategy of Daily Stock Market Timing for Maximum Profit. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1976.

A collection of stock market indicators with rules on how to interpret them. Granville, who pioneered the concept of the "On Balance Volume" indicator, claims that "one must keep returning to technical analysis for the ultimate answers the market will render." First edition, hardbound with dust jacket.

Hamilton, W. P. The Stock Market Barometer. New York: Harper & Brothers, 1928.

A study of Dow theory and cyclical forecasting "with an analysis of the market and its history since 1897." Revised edition, hardbound.

Hobbs, William, Jr. Flags of Profit: Stock Timing with Line Signs. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1975.

Anintroduction to Line Sign Investing, which combines cyclical timing patterns with wave theory to yield, according to the author, returns of more than 200% per year. First edition, hardbound with dust jacket.

Jensen, Edward S. Stock Market Blueprints. Portland, OR: Strother & Co., 1967.

Part one of this book consists of a compendium of short and long-term stock market indicators together with discussions of fundamental stock analysis and market timing. The second portion of this text is designed to help readers "lay down specific plans of investment action based on the factors discussed in Part I." First edition, hardbound with dust jacket.

Jensen, L. J. Major Trends in American Economics from 1492 to 1950; an Analysis and a Forecast. Kansas City, Mo., George E. Liggett and associates, [1935].

A study of psychological cycles that influence the market. According to the author, these cycles can trace their underlying causes to astrological phenomena. First edition, paperback with yellow wraps.

Karsten, Karl. Scientific Forecasting: Its Methods and Application to Practical Business and to Stock Market Operations. New York: Greenberg, 1931.

"Acomplete and practical exposition of economic and stock market forecasting, including new methods and procedure, and designed for the general reader." First edition, hardbound with dust jacket.

Kerr, Joseph H. Method in Dealing in Stocks. Boston: Christopher Publishing House, 1931.

Kerr writes, "Stock speculation is a science as truly as is economics itself," responding with consistent rules of probability to certain recurring causes. The methods outlined in this book are precise, but complicated. Kerr assigns each of many probable events (such as an important news release or a surge in trading volume) a value; when particular combinations of these events occur, he maintains, there is a high probability that a corresponding effect is sure to follow. Revised second edition, hardbound.

Krow, Harvey A. Stock Market Behavior: The Technical Approach to Understanding Wall Street. New York: Random House, 1969.

The outgrowth of Krow's doctoral dissertation, this text outlines a host of different technical signals and their significance and applies these signals to historical case studies of different securities. First printing, hardbound with dust jacket.

Langham, James Mars. Cyclical Market Forecasting Stocks and Grain. [Los Angeles, Calif., The Maghnal publishing co., 1938].

This text bills itself as a "complete course of instruction in an original and proven system" presented together with "evidence that proves" its effectiveness. First edition, hardbound with dust jacket.

Livermore, Jesse L. How to Trade in Stocks: The Livermore Formula for Combining Time Element and Price. New York: Duell, Sloan & Pearce, 1940.

Edward Dies, in the preface writes: "Every great speculator has his own method of operation.. . So when Jesse Livermore, with characteristic frankness, draws back the curtain and reveals publicly his rules for combining time element and prices he takes the spotlight for audacity among the top flight speculators of the age." Despite this momentous introduction, however, many critics have claimed that the technique outlined in Livermore's text is itself a smokescreen. First edition, hardbound with fifteen illustrated charts.

Merkle, Daniel R. Relative Strength and Stock Market Timing. [Alton, IL]: Traders Research, 1967.

"Of all the tools of technical analysis, none is more valuable than relative strength." Merkle discusses this indicator of strong stocks in strong industries at great length, providing tips on how to use this important signal to profit from stock trading. First edition hardbound, illustrated with graphs.

Merrill, Arthur A. Behavior of Prices on Wall Street. Chappaqua, NY: The Analysis Press, 1984.

"This book concentrates on the profitable study of timing." It includes historical and theoretical discussions of technical trends, market cycles and the recognition of turning points. Extensively illustrated with graphs. Second revised edition, hardbound with dust jacket. Inscribed by the author: "To Dr. Nicholas Gimble with best wishes Arthur A. Merrill 11 15 84."

Merrill, Arthur A. Filtered Waves: Basic Theory. Chappaqua, NY: The Analysis Press, 1977.

"This book presents a simple method of identifying and measuring swings." By filtering out all market swings smaller than 5%, "the book presents and examines charts for every bull and bear market since 1898; it presents charts for life expectancy of rallies and secondary reactions." With an appendix that describes and explains Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. First edition, first printing, hardbound with dust jacket.

Moody, John. The Art of Wall Street Investing. New York: Moody's Magazine, 1909.

Moody's book covers the "fundamental principles of investing" and is intended as a "practical hand-book or guide for those who wish to place their money in legitimate corporate enterprises of several kinds, through the purchase of stocks and bonds. First edition, hardbound.

Reid, Jesse B. Buy High, Sell Higher! New York: Hawthorn Books, 1966.

Reid's book outlines a theory of investment timing based upon buying stocks that increase substantially in price on, what the author calls, UVH or Ultra High Volume. First edition, hardbound with dust jacket.

Rhea, Robert. The Dow Theory. New York: Barron's, 1932.

Robert Rhea began studying The Wall Street Journal founder, Charles Dow's, theories of investment when he was "confined to a bed for a great number of years." He later emerged as one of the most prominent proponents of Dow Theory. "This book represents an effort to reduce Dow Theory to a manual for those wishing to use it as an aid in speculation," Based almost entirely on the writings of Dow himself, Rhea writes, "only a relatively small part of the subject matter represents original work or the ideas of the author." Eleventh printing, hardbound.

Rhea, Robert. Dow's Theory Applied to Business and Banking. New York: Simon and Schuster, 1938.

Rhea aims, in this book, to show that "the Dow-Jones averages are not merely a record of stock market changes but (when properly understood) they afford a composite index of all the hopes, disappointments, knowledge, and inside information of those whose financial business judgement determine the pattern and the trends of American business." Second printing, hardbound with dust jacket.

Russell, Richard. The Dow Theory. New York: Richard Russell Associates, 1960.

"Acollection of twelve articles which were written and published during the period of December, 1958, through December, 1960." The first few articles pertain to general Dow Theory, while the remaining articles deal with price movements during the time of publication, a particularly difficult time for investors and traders. Hardbound edition with dust jacket.

Seward, P. S. The Technique of Speculation. London: Sir Isaac Pitman & Sons, 1929.

"The object of this book is to demonstrate that [the Stock Exchange] is as legitimate a market as any other, possessing a definite scientific technique peculiarly its own." First edition, hardbound

deVilliers, Victor. The Point and Figure Method of Anticipating Stock Price Movements. New York: Trader's Press, 1966.

Though deVillier's did not invent the point and figure method (Indeed, it was reportedly used as far back as 1891 by such market mavens as Charles Dow and James R. Keene), the author's 1933 publication purported to have found "a dependable clue to the future price path of American securities so eagerly sought by investors and traders all over the world." Reprinted edition, hardbound, illustrated with charts and graphs.

Wolf, H. J. Studies in Stock Speculation. Wells, VT: Fraser Publishing, 1966.

First published in 1924, this book not only provided readers a valuable introduction to the mechanisms behind the stock market and speculative tactics but, as the publisher maintains, in an "era when stock movements were considered deep mysteries by the average man, this work helped to dissipate prevailing ideas of the market as largely, if not solely, a manipulator's game." Paperback reprinted edition.

Wolf, H. J. Studies in Speculation Volume II. Wells, VT: Fraser Publishing, 1967.

First published in 1926, this follow up to Studies in Stock Speculation promises to appeal "particularly to those who desire to profit by the experiences of others, and who are willing to investigate the science of speculation in an orderly and systematic manner." Wolf's second volume begins by presenting "ten cardinal principles of trading" and the author supplements these commandments with numerous examples and a discussion of the importance,of each rule. Paperback reprint edition.

                                                                                                             

Last Updated: 1/3/12